5 Reasons Rising Interest Rates Won’t Wreck the Housing Market

Interest rates are changing.  Here is a great article written by Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner about how this may affect the Real Estate Market.

Interest rates have been trending higher since the fall of 2017, and I fully expect they will continue in that direction – albeit relatively slowly – as we move through the balance of the year and into 2019. So what does this mean for the US housing market?

It might come as a surprise to learn that I really don’t think rising interest rates will have a major impact on the housing market. Here is my reasoning:

1. First Time Home Buyers 

As interest rates rise, I expect more buyers to get off the fence and into the market; specifically, first time buyers who, according to Freddie Mac, made up nearly half of new mortgages in the first quarter of this year. First-time buyers are critical to the overall health of the housing market because of the subsequent chain reaction of sales that result so this is actually a positive outcome of rising rates.

2. Easing Credit Standards

Rising interest rates may actually push some lenders to modestly ease credit standards. I know this statement will cause some people to think that easing credit will immediately send us back to the days of sub-prime lending and housing bubbles, but I don’t see this happening. Even a very modest easing of credit will allow for more than one million new home buyers to qualify for a mortgage.

3. Low Unemployment 

We stand today in a country with very low unemployment (currently 4.0% and likely to get close to 3.5% by year’s end). Low unemployment rates encourage employers to raise wages to keep existing talent, as well as to recruit new talent. Wage growth can, to a degree, offset increasing interest rates because, as wages rise, buyers can afford higher mortgage payments.

4. Supply

There is a clear relationship between housing supply, home prices, and interest rates. We’re already seeing a shift in inventory levels with more homes coming on the market, and I fully expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future. This increase in supply is, in part, a result of homeowners looking to cash in on their home’s appreciation before interest rates rise too far. This, on its own, will help ease the growth of home prices and offset rising interest rates. Furthermore, if we start to see more new construction activity at the lower end of the market, this too will help.

5. National versus Local

Up until this point, I’ve looked at how rising interest rates might impact the housing market on a national level, but as we all know, real estate is local, and different markets react to shifts in different ways. For example, rising interest rates will be felt more in expensive housing markets, such as San Francisco, New York, Los Angeles, and Orange County, but I expect to see less impact in areas like Cleveland, Philadelphia, Pittsburg, and Detroit, where buyers spend a lower percentage of their incomes on housing. The exception to this would be if interest rates continue to rise for a prolonged period; in that case, we might see demand start to taper off, especially in the less expensive housing markets where buyers are more price sensitive.

For more than seven years, home buyers and real estate professionals alike have grown very accustomed to historically low interest rates. We always knew the time would come when they would begin to rise again, but that doesn’t mean the outlook for housing is doom and gloom. On the contrary, I believe rising interest rates will help bring us closer to a more balanced real estate market, something that is sorely needed in many markets across the country.

Posted on October 3, 2018 at 5:45 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Helpful Home Tips, In the News, Market Stats, Uncategorized

Spring Home Checklist

Spring Home Maintenance Checklist

It’s time to check for damage and prepare for hot weather ahead.

With the days lengthening and weather warming, spring is a good time to get outdoors and tackle some larger home projects. With the threat of winter storms past, you can look for damage and make any needed repairs, as well as prep your home and garden for summer. We spoke with an expert to get a spring home checklist on what to watch for this season, from proper irrigation to mosquitoes and termites (oh my!).

 

 

Contact Denise Perkins for more information
Posted on May 10, 2018 at 11:15 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Helpful Home Tips, Home Sweet Home, In the News, Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Your Home’s New Years Resolution

Keep Current on Regular Home Maintenance

One of the most important things you can do as a homeowner is to make sure routine maintenance is part of your plan. Catching problems early can often help you avoid larger issues down the road. What is now a minor plumbing or roof leak can cause major problems if not detected and fixed immediately. Check around your home for cracked or peeling paint, have chimneys and fireplaces inspected and cleaned, and make sure the driveway and walkways are not cracked or lifting.

 

Update your home inventory for insurance purposes:

If you're like many homeowners, it's probably been a while since you've reviewed your home insurance policy and reassessed the value of your home's contents. An updated home inventory of your possessions can help you determine if you have the proper type and amount of insurance. Your insurance company may make forms available to help you organize and record your inventory, and there are several home inventory software programs available. You also can download a free program from www.knowyourstuff.org. Should you have an insurance claim for property loss or damage, your inventory can help make the process and accurate valuation easier.

 

Audit Home for Energy Savings:

There are simple things that every homeowner can do to improved energy efficiency and save on utility bills. Switching from conventional light bulbs to compact fluorescent versions wherever possible saves money and makes things easier for you, too. For example, you will need to replace bulbs in awkward places less often. Make sure windows and doors are caulked and in good repair; this will save energy in both winter and summer. If you're planning to replace any appliances this year, shop for and compare efficient, energy-saving models.

 

Create a Fire Safety Plan for your Family

Everyone knows the importance of having a plan in place should a fire occur in your home. But each year, tragedy strikes homes and families who didn't think about it or who promised to make a plan "one of these days". The basics include working and properly installed smoke detectors, fire extinguishers, and an escape plan for every room. Your local fire department is an excellent resource for directions on creating a plan designed to keep you and your loved ones safe. Give yourself some peace of mind by making this the year to put that plan in place.
 

Information provided by

Randy Kneram, Pillar to Post

425-788-7781
randy.kneram@pillartopost.com

Posted on March 4, 2013 at 8:03 pm
Denise Perkins | Category: Helpful Home Tips